J&G

June 1, 2026

USPS Future as Grok see it.

The Prompt:

"I have worked for the USPS since October 1999, as such, I am wondering what the future of our organization will look like year from now and in the year 2030 when I am projected to retire in. Can you give me the most probable outcome based on percentages to the least probable."

Most probable outcome (high confidence, ~60-70% likelihood): USPS continues as a government-owned independent agency with incremental reforms and modernization under the Delivering for America (DFA) plan, but remains under financial pressure. It muddles through with congressional bailouts, borrowing authority increases, or pension/healthcare relief rather than full collapse or privatization.

By 2027 (one year from now): Ongoing losses (~$9B net loss in FY2025), cash flow risks (potential shortfall as early as late 2026/early 2027 if obligations continue), and regulatory limits on rate hikes (one per year for mail through 2030). Mail volumes continue declining (First-Class and Marketing Mail down significantly), while package revenue grows but faces competition. Service changes (network optimization, facility reviews) proceed, with some delivery adjustments. Workforce sees conversions, efficiency drives, and possible voluntary retirements. Electric vehicle rollout continues. No major disruption to operations or retirement benefits for current employees.

By 2030 (your retirement year): DFA targets break-even operating performance by end of the 10-year period (~2031), avoiding ~$160B in projected losses through cost controls, pricing, and some legislative tweaks. However, GAO and others note this is optimistic without stronger action. Mail volumes projected to drop ~29% (baseline) or more (up to 41%) from 2025 levels for key classes. Package/parcel focus intensifies (projected revenue growth). Universal service obligation (6-day mail, 7-day packages) likely preserved but with efficiency measures (e.g., consolidated processing, route adjustments). Pensions and benefits for long-term employees like you remain largely intact, supported by prior reforms like the 2021 Postal Service Reform Act. Real estate monetization or partnerships possible for cash.

Moderately probable (~20-25%): More aggressive restructuring without full privatization. This includes deeper cost cuts, expanded private partnerships (e.g., last-mile deliveries), significant price increases on competitive products, or splitting mail (subsidized public service) vs. parcels (more commercial). Trump-era pushes for efficiency could accelerate network changes or Board/Governance shifts. Cash crisis in 2027 forces quicker congressional intervention (e.g., debt ceiling raise, pension relief). By 2030, a leaner but still public USPS with better parcel competitiveness.

Less probable (~10-15%): Significant privatization or major overhaul. Ideas like moving under Commerce Dept., IPO/sale of parcel business, or full privatization have been discussed, especially in a Trump administration context. However, this faces huge barriers: legislation needed, strong union/political opposition, universal service mandate for rural areas, and logistical challenges (no private entity easily replaces universal delivery). Partial steps (e.g., more outsourcing) more likely than full sale. Unlikely to fully materialize by 2030.

Least probable (<5-10%): Collapse, end of universal service, or dramatic service failure. USPS is constitutionally rooted, delivers to every address, and has broad public/political support. Congress has historically stepped in (e.g., 2021 reforms). Even in worst-case volume declines, it remains the largest mail market.

Key Trends Driving This

Volumes: Steep mail decline due to digital substitution; packages growing but margins thin and competitive.
Finances: Legacy liabilities (pensions, retiree health), inflation, and fixed costs vs. declining density. DFA has reduced projected losses but execution lags.
Politics: Bipartisan recognition of need for reform, but privatization is divisive. Efficiency focus likely dominates.
For Employees: Your long service (25+ years by 2030) protects benefits. Contracts (e.g., 2024-2027 CBA) provide wage/COLA stability. Modernization may shift roles but core delivery jobs endure.

Bottom line: USPS will almost certainly exist in 2027 and 2030 as a vital public service with challenges. Expect continued modernization, pressure on costs/volumes, and reliance on packages. Full sustainability by 2030 is aspirational and may require more aid. For personal retirement planning, focus on your federal benefits, TSP, and any USPS-specific options—the agency’s structural issues are unlikely to directly upend vested retiree protections. Monitor congressional action in 2026-2027 for cash relief.

May 31, 2026

This is me yawning – very tired, ready for a nap tired

We have all used the word “tired” to describe completely different states of being—ranging from a long day at work to a deep, structural depletion. Because language can be a bit limited here, breaking it down into distinct levels helps pinpoint exactly what kind of empty you are running on.

Here is how the different levels of being tired stack up, from everyday physical fatigue to deep burnout.

Level 1: Acute Physical Fatigue (The “Good” Tired)

This is the classic, clean tiredness you feel after a day of heavy physical activity, a long shift, or a solid workout.

How it feels: Your muscles feel heavy, your eyelids are drooping, and a bed or couch looks incredibly inviting.
The fix: Straightforward. A good night of sleep, a solid meal, and some hydration usually resets your clock completely.

Level 2: Mental & Cognitive Fatigue (The “Brain Fry”)

You haven’t lifted anything heavier than a coffee mug, but your brain feels like a browser with 47 tabs open, three of them are frozen, and music is playing from somewhere you can’t find. This is common after intense problem-solving, technical troubleshooting, or long periods of focused concentration.

How it feels: Decision fatigue sets in. You stare at simple emails trying to figure out how to reply, look at a screen without processing the data, or read the same paragraph four times.
The fix: Sleep helps, but cognitive rest is what you actually need. That means stepping away from screens, stopping the input of information, and doing something low-stakes or mechanical that lets your brain idle.

Level 3: Sensory Overload (The “Fried Circuits”)

This happens when your environment has bombarding your nervous system all day with noise, bright lights, constant interruptions, or high-alert environments.

How it feels: You feel wired but tired. You might notice irritability, a low tolerance for background noise (like the TV or a humming appliance), and a desperate need for a quiet, dark room. Your skin might even feel hyper-sensitive.
The fix: Radical quiet. Turning off the lights, sitting in silence for 20 minutes, or taking a solo walk without headphones to let your nervous system decompress.

Level 4: Emotional Fatigue (The “Heavy Heart”)

This is the depletion that comes from navigating high-stress situations, managing interpersonal dynamics, holding things together for others, or dealing with prolonged anxiety.

How it feels: You feel a lack of capacity. You don’t have the emotional bandwidth to chat, vent, or listen. You might feel numb, easily overwhelmed by small inconveniences, or uncharacteristically cynical.
The fix: Setting firm boundaries, saying “no” to social obligations, and spending time around people (or pets) who require absolutely zero emotional performance from you.

Level 5: Chronic Fatigue & Burnout (The “Cellular Depletion”)

This is what happens when levels 2, 3, and 4 accumulate over weeks or months without adequate recovery. It’s a deep, systemic deficit.

How it feels: Sleeping 8 or 9 hours doesn’t change how you feel in the morning. You wake up just as exhausted as when you went to bed. It feels like a physical ache in your bones, accompanied by a lack of motivation or enthusiasm for things you normally enjoy.
The fix: Time. This level can’t be fixed by a long weekend. It requires structural changes to your daily load, extended periods of low demand, and sometimes addressing underlying physiological or lifestyle stressors.

The Takeaway: Knowing which level you are at helps you choose the right fuel. If you are mentally fried (Level 2), sleeping for 10 hours won’t fully fix it if you wake up and immediately jump back into high-focus problem-solving. You might just need an afternoon of mindless, low-stakes tinkering or pure quiet.

April 22, 2026April 22, 2026

USPS impacts to employment and retirement 4/22/2026

Working for the USPS, you’re likely used to a fast-paced environment, but there have been several major developments over the last week (and leading into today, April 22, 2026) that directly impact your retirement benefits, job security, and day-to-day operations.

Here is a breakdown of what should be on your radar:

1. Pension Contribution Suspension

This is the most significant news for employees. On April 9–10, 2026, the USPS officially suspended employer contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS).

The Impact: This moves roughly $200 million every two weeks into the agency’s cash reserves to prevent a total “cash-out” by October.
Your Benefits: According to internal messages from CFO Luke Grossmann, your accrued pension and TSP accounts are safe. You will still see your own contributions deducted, and the 1% automatic and 4% matching TSP contributions are continuing as normal. The “suspension” only applies to the agency’s portion of the FERS annuity fund.

2. Imminent Price Hikes (Effective April 26)

Keep an eye on this coming Sunday, April 26. Several price adjustments are scheduled to take effect:

Stamps: The price of a First-Class Forever stamp is set to rise from 78 cents to 82 cents.
Shipping: A temporary 8% price increase for Priority Mail, Priority Mail Express, and Ground Advantage kicks in to help cover rising transportation costs. You can expect more questions (and potentially some grumbling) from customers at the window starting Monday.

3. “Workforce Reductions” Discussion

In mid-March and continuing through this week, Postmaster General David Steiner has been testifying before Congress regarding a $15 billion borrowing cap increase.

The Concern: The agency hired a restructuring firm (Alvarez & Marsal) in March. Reports indicate that “workforce cuts” are now “on the table” if Congress does not raise the borrowing limit or allow for more flexible retirement fund investing.
The Timeline: The agency is currently projecting it could run out of cash by October 2026 without these legislative changes.

4. New Tracking Restrictions

Starting this month, USPS has tightened access to package tracking data APIs.

While this doesn’t change how customers use the website or app, it affects third-party shipping software and businesses. If you handle commercial accounts, they may have questions about “Mailer ID” authorizations or new monthly fees for bulk tracking data.

5. Political Tensions: Mail-In Ballots

The American Postal Workers Union (APWU) launched a major ad campaign last week (April 14) to promote the safety of voting by mail. This comes in response to a March 31 Executive Order that would require postal workers to verify voter eligibility against federal lists.

Union Stance: Both the APWU and the National Rural Letter Carriers’ Association have pushed back, stating it is not the job of postal workers to verify voter eligibility and that such a move risks “politicizing” the service.

Quick Reference for the Week Ahead:

Event	Date	Impact
Stamp Increase	April 26	Forever stamps go to 82¢
Shipping Increase	April 26	8% hike on retail/commercial packages
FERS Suspension	Ongoing	No agency pension pay-in (TSP still matched)

April 9, 2026

USPS

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/usps-pension-payments-fers-cash-crisis

USPS suspends contributions to employee pensions after warning of “cash crisis”

April 5, 2026

Obsidian “server”

Yes, you can definitely run an Obsidian “server” in your home lab. Since you’re already comfortable with Manjaro, Docker, and Portainer, you have a few powerful ways to set this up depending on whether you want to access the app via a browser or just sync your notes across devices.

Here are the three most common home-lab approaches:

1. The “Obsidian-Remote” Approach (Access via Browser)

This method runs the full Obsidian desktop application inside a Docker container. It uses a technology called KasmVNC to stream the interface to your web browser.

Best for: Accessing your vault from a work computer or any device where you can’t install Obsidian.
Setup: You can deploy the linuxserver/obsidian or sytone/obsidian-remote image.
Portainer Tip: Since you use Portainer, you can simply paste a Docker Compose stack. Ensure you mount your local vault folder as a volume so your notes persist.

YAML

version: "3"
services:
  obsidian:
    image: lscr.io/linuxserver/obsidian:latest
    container_name: obsidian
    environment:
      - PUID=1000
      - PGID=1000
      - TZ=America/Los_Angeles
    volumes:
      - /path/to/your/vault:/config
    ports:
      - 3000:3000 # HTTP
      - 3001:3001 # HTTPS
    restart: unless-stopped

2. The “LiveSync” Server (Private Syncing)

Obsidian notes are just Markdown files, so “hosting” often means hosting a sync backend. The Self-hosted LiveSync plugin is the gold standard for home labs. It uses a CouchDB database to provide near-instant, conflict-free syncing between your Manjaro desktop, mobile phone, and other clients.

Best for: Replacing the paid “Obsidian Sync” service with your own hardware.
How it works:
1. Deploy a CouchDB container in your home lab.
2. Install the Self-hosted LiveSync community plugin in Obsidian.
3. Point the plugin to your CouchDB local IP.

3. The “Network Share” Method (Simple)

If you just want to access the same files on multiple Linux machines in your house, you don’t necessarily need a dedicated container.

Method: Host your vault on your home server via Samba or NFS.
Manjaro Config: Mount that network share to a local folder (e.g., /home/joel/Documents/Notes) and open it as a vault in Obsidian.

Which one fits your workflow?

If you want to edit notes in a browser: Use Method 1 (Docker Obsidian).
If you want instant syncing across your phone and laptop: Use Method 2 (CouchDB + LiveSync).
If you want to publish your notes as a website: Look into Quartz, which can also be containerized to turn your vault into a public or private wiki.

Since you’re already running CachyOS or Manjaro and experimenting with NVIDIA 50-series hardware, you might find the Docker-Remote method particularly interesting for testing how well the UI performs over the network!

Would you like a specific Docker Compose file for any of these setups?

March 17, 2026

Homeless in Reno NV

Addressing the challenges of neighborhood encampments requires a balance of practical tactics, legal knowledge, and an understanding of the systemic issues at play.

Here are several books that offer different perspectives—from urban management and environmental design to the sociological roots of the crisis—to help you navigate this effectively.

Practical & Strategic Management

These books focus on how physical environments and community structures can be managed to reduce unwanted activity and maintain neighborhood standards.

“Creating Safe Communities” by Oscar Newman: While older, Newman’s theories on Defensible Space remain the gold standard for understanding how the physical design of a neighborhood can deter crime and unauthorized encampments by increasing “natural surveillance.”
“The Death and Life of Great American Cities” by Jane Jacobs: A foundational text on urban planning. Jacobs explains how “eyes on the street” and active community participation keep neighborhoods safe and functional. It’s essential for anyone looking to mobilize a neighborhood.
“Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design” (CPTED) manuals (Various Authors): These aren’t always traditional “books” but rather design guides. They provide actionable strategies on lighting, landscaping, and fencing that make a specific area less hospitable for long-term camping without necessarily being hostile to the public.

Understanding the Crisis

To be more effective in your advocacy with city officials or property managers, it helps to understand the mechanics of why these encampments form and the legal constraints cities face.

“Homelessness in America” by Stephen Eide: This provides a modern, policy-oriented look at the crisis. It discusses the “Housing First” model vs. “Treatment First” and gives you the vocabulary needed to engage in high-level discussions with local government.
“San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities” by Michael Shellenberger: A controversial but highly relevant look at how certain urban policies regarding homelessness, drugs, and mental health have played out. It offers a critique of current management strategies and suggests alternative enforcement-heavy or intervention-based models.
“Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City” by Matthew Desmond: While it focuses on the precursor to homelessness (eviction), this Pulitzer Prize-winning book provides a deep look at the economic cycles that lead to people living on the street.

Community & Legal Action

“The Art of Community: Seven Principles for Belonging” by Charles Vogl: If your goal is to organize your neighbors into a cohesive group that can lobby the city or police more effectively, this book offers a roadmap for building that collective voice.
“Order without Law: How Neighbors Settle Disputes” by Robert Ellickson: This explores how communities can enforce social norms and manage shared spaces through informal rules and local cooperation, which can be more agile than waiting for government intervention.

Quick Comparison Table

Book Title	Focus Area	Key Takeaway
Creating Safe Communities	Design/Defense	Use physical layout to claim and protect space.
San Fransicko	Policy/Critique	Understand the failures of current urban management.
The Art of Community	Organizing	How to build a united front with your neighbors.
Homelessness in America	Policy/Context	Learn the legal and social drivers of the crisis.

March 8, 2026

The Declaration of The Declaration of Independence

March 2, 2026

March 2nd 2026, Wisdom from our bible

Connecting ancient texts to modern life is a bit like translating a vintage map into GPS coordinates—the landscape has changed, but the destination remains the same.

Here is how these scriptures translate into principles for 2026.

1. Leviticus 7:11-8:36 | The Logistics of Gratitude and Leadership

While we aren’t splashing blood on altars or burning grain offerings anymore, these chapters focus on the Peace Offering and the Consecration of Priests.

Modern Principles:

The “Shared Table” Concept: The Peace Offering was unique because the worshiper, the priest, and God all “shared” the meal.
- Practice: Turn your gratitude into a social event. Don’t just say “thanks” privately; host a dinner or start a thread sharing wins to build community.
The Weight of Public Service: The ordination of Aaron and his sons was meticulous. It suggests that leadership isn’t just a title—it’s a rigorous “setting apart.”
- Practice: If you hold a position of influence (at work or in your family), treat your integrity as your “uniform.” Excellence in your preparation is a form of respect for those you serve.
Promptness in Gratitude: Leviticus 7:15 mandates that the meat be eaten on the day it is offered.
- Practice: Don’t delay your “thank yous.” Appreciation has a shelf life; express it while the impact is fresh.

2. Mark 11:1-26 | Authority, Authenticity, and Action

This passage covers the Triumphal Entry, the clearing of the Temple, and the withered fig tree.

Modern Principles:

Gentle Authority: Jesus enters on a colt, not a warhorse.
- Practice: Lead with humility rather than “shock and awe.” True power doesn’t need to shout to be recognized.
Functional Faith (The Fig Tree): Jesus curses the tree because it has leaves (the appearance of fruit) but no actual fruit.
- Practice: Audit your “optics vs. output.” Are you busy looking productive (leaves), or are you actually producing results (fruit)?
Purpose over Profit: Clearing the Temple was about removing distractions that blocked people from connecting with their purpose.
- Practice: Declutter your “inner temple.” Identify the “money changers” in your life—those habits or distractions that turn your values into a marketplace.

3. Psalm 28:1-9 | Navigating the “Noise” of the World

This is a prayer for protection and a song of trust amidst people who “speak peace… while evil is in their hearts.”

Modern Principles:

The Discernment Filter: David asks not to be “dragged away” with the wicked.
- Practice: Be selective about your environment. In an era of misinformation and performative kindness, cultivate the intuition to see past what people say to what they actually do.
The “Lifting of Hands”: This is a posture of vulnerability and request.
- Practice: Practice radical honesty in your private reflections. You don’t have to have it all figured out; admitting “I need help” is actually a position of strength ($Psalm 28:7$).
The Ripple Effect: The Psalm ends by pivoting from “me” to “us”—praying for the strength of the whole people.
- Practice: When you find your own “rock” or stability, use that momentum to advocate for your community or “herd.”

Summary Table

Scripture	Core Theme	Modern Practice
Leviticus	Ritual & Consecration	High standards for integrity; timely gratitude.
Mark	Authority & Authenticity	Focusing on real “fruit” over public “optics.”
Psalm 28	Protection & Trust	Using discernment to navigate social noise.

March 1, 2026

March 1, 2026 – Wisdom of our scriptures

These passages offer a fascinating look at the shift from ritualistic law to a heart-centered approach to life. While we don’t bring rams to an altar anymore, the underlying ethics of accountability, servant leadership, and personal integrity remain incredibly relevant.

1. Leviticus 5:14–7:10 | Reparation and Responsibility

This section outlines the Guilt Offering (or Trespass Offering). The core principle isn’t just saying “sorry,” but making things right.

Restitution Plus: If someone “sinned unintentionally” regarding holy things or property, they had to restore what was lost plus an additional 20%.
Modern Practice: This is the biblical root of Restorative Justice. In modern life, it means if you break something or hurt someone’s reputation, an apology is only the first step. True integrity involves covering the loss and then some, ensuring the victim is made whole.
Mindfulness: It highlights that “unintentional” mistakes still have consequences. It encourages us to be more conscious of how our actions affect our community.

2. Mark 10:32–52 | The Upside-Down Kingdom

In this passage, Jesus predicts his death, James and John ask for positions of power, and Bartimaeus (a blind beggar) receives his sight.

Servant Leadership: Jesus directly counters the “hustle culture” and power-grabbing of the time. He states that whoever wants to be great must be a servant.”For even the Son of Man did not come to be served, but to serve, and to give his life as a ransom for many.” (Mark 10:45)
Modern Practice: This shifts the definition of success from authority over others to influence for others. In leadership—whether in a corporation or a family—the “greatest” person is the one who empowers and supports the team, not the one with the fanciest title.
Persistence and Faith: Blind Bartimaeus wouldn’t be silenced by the crowd. Modern practice involves having the “holy grit” to pursue healing and truth even when society tells you to stay quiet.

3. Proverbs 6:12–19 | Integrity vs. Toxicity

This text describes the “worthless person” and lists the “seven things the Lord hates.” It’s a masterclass in identifying toxic behavior.

The Seven Abominations:
1. Haughty eyes (Pride)
2. A lying tongue
3. Hands that shed innocent blood
4. A heart that devises wicked schemes
5. Feet that are quick to rush into evil
6. A false witness
7. A person who stirs up conflict in a community
Modern Practice: This is a checklist for Emotional Intelligence and Character. While we might not be “shedding blood,” the modern equivalent includes online character assassination, workplace gossip, or “stirring the pot” for the sake of drama.
The “Whole Body” Warning: Notice how the text mentions eyes, tongues, hands, hearts, and feet. It suggests that our character isn’t just what we think; it’s what we do with our entire being.

Summary Table: Ancient Principle to Modern Action

Scripture	Ancient Principle	Modern Practice
Leviticus	Ritual Restitution	Restorative justice; paying back more than what was taken.
Mark	Sacrifice & Service	Servant leadership; prioritizing others’ needs over status.
Proverbs	Avoiding Wickedness	Developing high character; avoiding toxic gossip and pride.

March 1, 2026

Elon Musk’s 2026 reading list

Elon Musk’s 2026 reading list, based on recommendations and, frequently cited favorites, centers heavily on artificial intelligence, future civilizations, physics, and biographies of inventors. He has long recommended reading as a way to “ingest as much information as you can”. [1, 2, 3]

Top Recommendations (2025–2026)

Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence by Max Tegmark: Explores the future of AI and keeping it beneficial for humanity.
Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control by Stuart Russell: Discusses the risks of AI and why it could be a threat to civilization.
Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future by Peter Thiel: Focuses on creating new things rather than copying, recommended for its insights into building companies.
The Big Picture: On the Origins of Life, Meaning, and the Universe Itself by Sean Carroll: Combines physics and philosophy to explain the universe.
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom: Examines the implications of AI surpassing human intelligence.
Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway: Investigates how scientists have obscured truths on issues like climate change.
Structures: Or Why Things Don’t Fall Down by J.E. Gordon: Recommended for a primer on structural design. [1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7]

Science Fiction and Classics

Foundation Series by Isaac Asimov: Described as fundamental to the creation of SpaceX.
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams: An instrumental book to his thinking.
The Lord of the Rings by J.R.R. Tolkien.
Dune Series by Frank Herbert.
The Culture Series by Iain M. Banks: Cited for its picture of a “semi-utopian galactic future”.
The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress by Robert A. Heinlein. [2, 5, 6, 8, 9]

Non-Fiction and Biographies

Benjamin Franklin: An American Life by Walter Isaacson.
Einstein: His Life and Universe by Walter Isaacson.
Howard Hughes: His Life and Madness by Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele.
Ignition!: An Informal History of Liquid Rocket Propellants by John Drury Clark.
The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith.
Lying by Sam Harris: Explores the danger of lies. [2, 3, 5, 6, 10]